Recommendations & Experiment Plan

Targeting (where & when)

• Stations: Top 10 casual hotspots led by DuSable Lake Shore Dr & Monroe St (see Fig.3 / Appendix).
• Hours: Weekends 11:00–16:00; Weekdays 16:00–18:00.
• Eligibility: Casual riders starting at targeted stations within the above windows.

Treatment & Control

• Unit of analysis: station-hour (clean randomization; easy to operationalize).
• Randomization: Per station-hour, 50% Treatment (offer shown) / 50% Control (status quo).
• Stratification: Randomize within weekend/weekday (and optionally by station) to balance volume.
• Treatment content: “Weekend Day Pass → Annual upgrade credit” (CTA in app / on-dock).
• Global holdout (optional): 5–10% to check incremental lift bias.

Success & Guardrails

• Primary: Casual → Annual conversion within 30 days of exposure.
• Secondary: Offer CTR, time-to-conversion, revenue per exposed rider.
• Guardrails: Member churn (no increase vs control), bike availability SLA (no degradation).

Duration & Sample Size

• Traffic assumptions: ~235 eligible rider sessions/day (≈ 120 weekday; ≈ 518 weekend).
• Minimum detectable effect (MDE): +30% relative lift vs baseline conversion.
• Duration: Run ~84 days (~12 weeks) to reach power at current scope.
• Powering note: Need n≈9,799 per arm (α=0.05, power=0.80, MDE=+30%). To hit 4–6 weeks, expand hotspots/hours and recompute power.